Although we've already had two tropical storms, today marks the "official" beginning of hurricane season.

Meteorologists agree: strong upper-atmospheric wind shear caused by a developing El Nino and cooler water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean should prevent some smaller tropical waves from fully developing into hurricanes.

Watch the Gulf of Mexico

While water temperatures in the central and eastern Atlantic are currently cooler than normal, the water in the Gulf of Mexico is still very warm.  This could allow some storms to rapidly develop or strengthen close to the coast.  That's howHurricane Alicia formed in 1983.

How many hurricanes?

Here's a list of all the hurricane season forecasts with links to the full reports:

NOAA: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration which oversees the National Hurricane Center.

  • 9-15 Tropical Storms
  • 4-8 Hurricanes
  • 1-3 Major Hurricanes.

Impact Weather: Houston based private forecasting firm that works with oil companies.

  • 10 Tropical Storms
  • 5 Hurricanes
  • 2 Major Hurricanes

 AccuWeather:

  • 12 Tropical Storms
  • 5 Hurricanes
  • 2 Major Hurricanes

The Weather Channel:

  • 11 Tropical Storms
  • 6 Hurricanes
  • 2 Major Hurricanes

Colorado State University: from Dr. William Gray and Dr. Phil Klotzback.

  • 10 Tropical Storms
  • 4 Hurricanes
  • 2 Major Hurricanes

Florida State Univeristy: Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies

  • 10-16 Tropical Storms
  • 5-9 Hurricanes

North Carolina State University:

  • 7-10 Tropical Storms
  • 4-7 Hurricanes
  • 1-3 Major Hurricanes

Tropical Storm Risk: London-based forecast company.

  • 13 Tropical Storms
  • 6 Hurricanes
  • 3 Major Hurricanes

Weather Research Center: Home to Houston's Weather Museum, the WRC forecast is based on sunspot cycles, not current or forecast weather patterns.

  • 8 Tropical Storms
  • 5 Hurricanes

What do these numbers really mean? Nothing.

Here's my hurricane forecast for the upcoming season:

  • Many Tropical Storms
  • Several Hurricanes
  • A Few Major Hurricanes

The forecast numbers are interesting, but they don't tell you anything about your risk of being hit by a hurricane. We need to prepare every season for a possible landfall.

Twenty years ago this summer, Hurricane Andrew devastated south Florida with category five winds. Yet only seven storms developed that season (six named storms and one unnamed subtropical storm.)

In 1983 only four storms developed during the whole season. But one of those storms was Alicia, the last major category three hurricane to hit the Houston-Galveston area. (Hurricane Ike was a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale which ranks storm strength based only on maximum wind speed.)