Hello everyone! This will be my first posting on here so I want to share a little bit about myself and what I hope to contribute on Cyclone center! My name is Michael and I have always been fascinated by weather from when I was younger as I experienced a Tornado in New York. I did a great deal of reading on past major severe events and also began to want to know why and how it all works. I made connections with local MET Television folks and started to work on forecasts for heavy snowfall events and did a decent job.

Things became more clear for me when I moved to Florida in 2004. I took classes for MET in community college and interned with local Melbourne weather service office. Was a great experience and even have contacts with those folks until today. I went through the hurricanes of 2004 and tropical meteorology was my calling. I learned fast and because friends and connections with other weather folks to develop forecasts that I had some success with during 2004 and 2005. I joined internet partnership radio in around that time and was co-hosting with someone for a while and really got my feet wet. I also have attended the governors and the national hurricane conferences quite a bit and I have had the privilege to have interviewed and meet most of the folks that worked at the NHC. I also am a spotter for the MELB forecast office as well. I hope to be able to share my information and even my experiences if I intercept a hurricane with you all. I hope that my forecasts and opinions are helpful as my puruse is to inform and warn those that may be effected by these cyclones. Also I hope to share the history of weather events as well as I am a history major and believe some of the past meshes with current storm and cyclone events.

As for today, I am very confident that what is now 93E will become the third storm of the season for the Eastern Pacific. The NHC gives the system a high chance (60%) of formation.

The system looks quite good on satellite and is moving off to the west at about 10 mph well away from Mexico. Based on model guidance the system poses no threat to land in the slightest so not of any concern for Mexico. The intensity forecast looks good for the system for intensification based on ships model and will weaken steadily as moves further away into cooler waters of the pacific basin. Will post more on the system when the NHC initiates advisories on the storm in the coming days.


As For the Atlantic basin after a very historical start to the season when we had two storms in the month of may one of which nearly became a hurricane and per recon reports may have been briefly before the system encountered the cooler self waters off Jacksonville. Things had quieted down quite a bit at the official start of the season but, now looking around June 15th for potential development in the Gulf. I have been looking over the model runs for a number of days now and though some models have backed off intensity and location of the system they all point at a potential for a disturbance to potentially form into next weekend. The MJO will be more favorable in this part of the world as well which will help a great deal. My personal initial feeling on this system is that it may not become very strong most models show system very weak and I feel that area that most likely will be impacted is the Yucatan area and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The HPC does feel that there is a chance for formation as well as quoted here, RIDGING EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO FAVORS TROPICAL
CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF MEXICO...AND THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE TWO POSSIBLE SYSTEMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THAT
REGION DURING THE NEXT WEEK. SEE THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER /NHC/ REGARDING THE
FIRST OF THE TWO POSSIBILITIES LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN NEXT SUNDAY...THERE IS LIMITED AND MAINLY GEFS-BASED
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHICH FAVORS A SOLUTION SOUTH OF THE 00Z GFS
REGARDING A POTENTIAL WARM CORE CYCLONE IN THE AREA. FOR
NOW...PLACED A WEAK LOW IN THAT AREA. THE 17Z CONFERENCE CALL
WITH NHC WILL LIKELY DISCUSS THIS FEATURE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

So I'm definitely keeping a close eye on this area as we move later into the week. Overall I think we have about a 50% shot at formation though if does get going think at most a mid range tropical storm in and around the Yucatan channel and that may be the only game in town for a little while as we progress into later June. The storm would be Chris. Will update as things change toward the possibility of an invest or something later.


Thanks for taking a look at this as it just my first posting in a long while and I hope to be able to put some good information out there and as always keep an eye on the tropics! For further official information please refer the NHC and NWS offices for the latest information.


Michael Ferraro :)