There is a great deal going on in the tropics today as the MJO and more favorable environment has allowed the development of a rapidly intensifying hurricane in the Eastern Pacific and the possible development of areas in the western Gulf and Caribbean.

Of course I want to go over the latest on Hurricane Carlotta as it rapidly came together going from a tropical storm to a Hurricane in little more than a days time. The center as of late Friday has now come near the Mexican shoreline by Puerto Angel and Acapulco and peak intensity of 105 mph or a strong Cat 2 storm. As for forecast track is very straight forward. Storm will move on or near the mexican coast and move toward the WNW is expected at a slower pace which will put a lot of areas along the Mexican coast under heavy winds and rain from the hurricane. A piece of energy according to some models will help initiate a possible tropical entity in the BOC or western gulf of Mexico new week though with all the back n forth of the models highly uncertain of this at this time. Very impressive storm great outflow and continued intensification up to the coastline. Great outflow in all Quadrants and the Air force hurricane hunters measured and confirmed the peak winds. Will be a major flood maker and near the center damaging winds will come onshore the coast.

As for the Atlantic there remains a great amount of uncertainty, as I mentioned before I believed that the 15th was the key beginnings of something and now I feel if anything be more into next week. Perhaps around the 20th. The NHC is monitoring a small thunderstorm complex off the Alabama coast line and gives the area a near 0% of formation which I am in agreement with. If area does persist though some models do some minor intensification so cant completely rule at the area. There is a good bit of shear around though currently. So at least something was mentioned as I thought there was some potential of cyclone development. As I mentioned before a piece of energy from hurricane Carlotta may spark some activity in the BOC as mentioned by the NHC,

ANOTHER AREA OF WEATHER TO WATCH FOR IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. THE OUTER CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO HURRICANE
CARLOTTA IS ALREADY AFFECTING THIS REGION WITH SIMILAR
CONVECTION S OF 21N. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER
DETERIORATE AND SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS

So this definitely needs to be watched in areas of Texas perhaps and parts of Mexico. If anything does get going my feeling is that it wont be that significant, however may be a major rain maker.

As of Friday evening a low has been initiated in the Caribbean sea at 1009 MB. Off the central American coastline and is stationary. Going to be a tricky and sensitive situation. Lower pressures are being foretasted in both the BOC and Caribbean. Latest models have shifted north as GFS shows less land interaction and perhaps impacts to northern gulf coast and initiated the low in the NW Caribbean as well indicating the lower area of pressure. The HPC center forecasting a 1004 mb low in the BOC on Friday 22nd . So after spending another day combing the models really hard to say what area my develop first or if both areas may form separate systems even. These areas will be closely monitored during the upcoming week. Will be posting more frequently if things begin to heat up further.

As always everyone, Keep an Eye on the Tropics and follow the official info from the NHC and the affiliated offices as well as the NWS offices. :)

Michael Ferraro