Tropical Central / Cyclone Warning Center

AFTER A SHORT RESPITE, 90W STEPS UP AS THE “NEXT BIG THING”…OR IS IT?

Welcome weekend tropical weather hunters! After a rather busy end to May, and start to June, things have quieted down just a bit across the tropical WESPAC, just as I had forecasted it would. Things are starting to heat up a little bit our east along the ITCZ with the declaration of 90W INVEST Friday morning, 08 June. A lot of theories abound with a storm that starts this far out in the ocean, and realistically speaking, there is much to be concerned with. But, it would appear that 90W might just be a big baby.

90W INVEST

On Friday morning, at approximately 0500PST, the JTWC and NRL both declared an area of disturbed weather as 90W INVEST as it churned its way to the west. The system started off looking quite impressive, with a healthy outflow, and clear slow circulation in the clouds, with some evident banding starting to appear. This was evident enough for the JTWC to re-issue an advisory Friday afternoon, upgrading the 24-hour formation potential to MEDIUM. By Friday evening, June 08, things were already starting to look a bit shaky for this system to most of us, with some evident degradation of the LLCC and banding, as well as a decrease in overall cloud cover and thunderstorm development. However, I surmised the storm was starting to contract, as they do in the early stages of TD and TS development. Sure enough, by wake up time this morning, the JTWC had issued a TCFA (Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert) at 2030UTC (0430PST) and upgraded the 24-hour formation potential to HIGH Technically speaking that is where things stand now, but the syste looks to be in  trouble. More on that after I share with you the latest information on 90W INVEST…

Source:                                                                                  NRL                                                JTWC

Time/Date:                                                               0900UTC/1700PST                          0600UTC/1600PST

Position:                                                                        5.2N, 155.7E                                     4.6N, 152.9E

Direction:                                                                      W@ 10-15 kts                    SSW@ 10-15 kts (likely relocation)

Winds:                                                                            20-25 knots                                       15-20 knots

Pressure:                                                                           1007 mb                                            1006 mb

90W INVEST- 4.6N, 152.9E, 15-20kts, 1006mb

90W INVEST is forecast to have a very tough time getting organized due to some unfavorable atmospheric conditions in its path. The LLCC is currently poorly-defined and elongated. Computer forecast models are a bit split on this one now. Most were showing development and movement NW towards Japan. Now, NOGAPS shows no development of 90W, and has it moving west as a rather disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. GFS, on the other hand, maintains its grip on this storm’s development and movement to the NW, but the forecast track has shifted about 300km to the west. However, things do change in the WESPAC, and this system is very far out to sea, so there is a lot of time for things to develop, and for us to watch it.

AROUND THE NEIGHBORHOOD…

Elsewhere in the tropical WESPAC, the ITCZ is a bit quiet inside of 155E longitude. A high pressure area located just east of the Philippines is currently keeping things clear and dry over the WESPAC from Guam to the South China Sea. The remnants of 99W are lingering about near 19N, 157E after being dragged up by the surface trough associated with MAWAR as it made its ETT and sped off to the NE. A TUTT cell is located near 17N, 153E. The southwest monsoon has been pushed to the west by this high pressure area, and will not be able to start progressing eastward until the high breaks down in a day or two. The Mei-Yu baroclinic zone continues to migrate slowly northward and its effects are being felt much less in tropical areas as we head into the idle of June.

CRYSTAL BALL…

The immediate future looks rather quiet as we continue to monitor 90W INVEST. Computer forecast models are showing an increase in activity as we go through next week, and even the NOGAPS has predicted some tropical development east of the Philippines. Since things are quiet, the SST’s will warm back up along the ITCZ and activity should also start to increase as we get around to next weekend. The Mei-Yu baroclinic zone activity should be almost non-existent for areas of the tropical WESPAC. One point of note is that the SST’s in the EASTERN Pacific have been reading higher than normal, which means the ENSO may be entering an El Nino phase in the near future.

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Have a happy storm-hunting weekend!