By DAVE ORNAUER
   
 

6:35 p.m. Sunday, June 17, Japan time: Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2 issued for Okinawa at 6:35 p.m. local. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater now possible within 24 hours.

6:20 p.m. Sunday, June 17, Japan time: Though a very powerful storm, Super Typhoon Guchol hasn’t developed into the uber-monster as earlier forecasts indicated, possibly a consequence of it moving so rapidly north-northwest. Sea surface temperatures are warm enough, but Guchol isn’t staying in one place long enough to sop up all the humidity and moisture that such nurturing waters have to offer.

As it is, Guchol is still forecast to roar past Okinawa packing Category 3- to 4-equivalent sustained winds (115 mph) and gusts (155 mph) at its center. But with the closest point of approach forecast for 76 miles southeast at around 10 p.m. Monday, that means Guchol will rake Okinawa with its west quadrants, less dangerous and a tad smaller than the east quadrants, as seen in the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest graphic.

Okinawa remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3; expect an upgrade at any time. Here’s the latest forecast wind timeline from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:

-- Onset of 35-mph winds: 5 a.m. Monday.
-- Onset of 40-mph winds: 10 a.m. Monday.
-- Onset of 58-mph winds: 4 p.m. Monday.
-- Maximum 86-mph winds, 121-mph gusts: 9 p.m.-midnight Monday.
-- Winds diminishing below 58 mph: 3 a.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40 mph: 9 a.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds diminishing below 35 mph: 3 p.m. Tuesday.

Yokosuka Naval Base remains in TCCOR 4; other Kanto Plain bases remain all clear for the moment. Yokosuka’s weather unit calls for southeasterly winds of 20 to 25 mph with 35-mph gusts by late Tuesday afternoon, increasing to 30 to 40 mph with 50-mph gusts overnight into Wednesday.

Sasebo Naval Base (267 miles southeast at 1 p.m. Tuesday) and Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni (238 miles southeast at 6 p.m. Tuesday) continue to appear to be well out of harm’s way. Sasebo’s weather unit calls for north-northeasterly winds between 25 and 35 mph with 45-mph gusts Tuesday morning, decreasing rapidly by evening.


1 p.m. Sunday, June 17, Japan time: Another wind timeline update from Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight. Okinawa remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3 (expect that to change this afternoon), and Guchol remains forecast to roar 76 miles east-southeast of Kadena Air Base around 9 p.m. Monday:

-- Onset of 35-mph winds: 3 a.m. Monday.
-- Onset of 40-mph winds: 9 a.m. Monday.
-- Onset of 58-mph winds: 3 p.m. Monday.
-- Maximum 86-mph sustained winds, 121-mph gusts: Between 8 and 11 p.m. Monday.
-- Winds diminishing below 58 mph: 3 a.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40 mph: 9 a.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds diminishing below 35 mph: 3 p.m. Tuesday.

PST will alert you to any TCCOR changes.


12:30 p.m. Sunday, June 17, Japan time: Looks like Super Typhoon Guchol’s forecast track keeps edging ever closer to Okinawa, 76 miles east-southeast at 9 p.m. Monday. Also, it appears as if it will retain typhoon strength as it rumbles past the Kanto Plain on Wednesday, so the Tokyo area should also brace for wet, gusty weather.

Yokosuka Naval Base entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4 at 6 a.m. Sunday, and according to its weather page, that should change by 7 a.m. Monday, perhaps sooner if Guchol moves faster than forecast.

Okinawa remained in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3 early afternoon Sunday. At closest point of approach to Okinawa, Guchol will be packing Category 5-equivalent 150-mph sustained winds and 185-mph gusts at its center. Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight’s wind forecast timeline reads:

-- Onset of 35-mph winds: 6 a.m. Monday.
-- Onset of 40-mph winds: 9 a.m. Monday.
-- Onset of 58-mph winds: 3 p.m. Monday.
-- Maximum 75-mph sustained winds, 104-mph gusts: 8 p.m. Monday-2 a.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds diminishing below 58 mph: 6 a.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40 mph: 9 a.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds diminishing below 35 mph: 3 p.m. Tuesday.

This could vary as Guchol approaches and the track varies in one direction or another.

As for the Kanto Plain, Guchol is forecast to still be packing 92-mph sustained and 115-mph gusts at its center as it roars 28 miles south-southeast of Yokosuka, 48 miles south-southeast of Naval Air Facility Atsugi and Camp Zama and 60 miles south of Yokota at 9 a.m. Wednesday and 70 miles southeast of Camp Fuji at 8 a.m. Keep tuned to your base Facebook pages, official base pages and commander’s access TV channels for updates.

Sasebo Naval Base (246 miles southeast at noon Tuesday) and Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni (220 miles southeast at 5 p.m. Tuesday) still appear to be out of harm’s way; no accelerated TCCORs declared there.