As I have been mentioning for at least a couple of weeks now, the very real possibility is there for the development of a tropical cyclone in either the Bay of Campeche or the western Gulf of Mexico as early as Wednesday of next week. This morning is no exception as the model guidance, even though they vary exactly where this system will form, all agree that something may be brewing in the Bay of Campeche/western Gulf by the middle part of next week.

The latest GFS model guidance forecasts that a tropical system will develop by Wednesday of next week in the Bay of Campeche and then forecasts it to stall in the western Gulf of Mexico before it seemingly “blows up” into multiple low pressure centers. The latest NOGAPS model guidance also forecasts the development of a tropical cyclone in the Bay of Campeche or western Gulf of Mexico by the middle and later part of next week.

Now, my favorite model (yes, I have a favorite model) the European model forecasts that rapidly intensifying Tropical Storm Carlotta in the eastern Pacific will track into southwestern Mexico by later tomorrow into Saturday morning and that the energy from this eastern Pacific storm may combine with a westward moving tropical wave that will track across the Caribbean this weekend and also combine with a monsoonal low pressure system tracking northwestward from the southwestern Caribbean and cause the development of a tropical system in the Bay of Campeche by Thursday into Friday of next week. The European model then forecasts this tropical system to stall in the Bay of Campeche through at least next Saturday.

The overall pattern, as I have mentioned many times before, strongly supports the development of a low pressure system in the Bay of Campeche by late next week. Additionally, wind shear values are forecast to decrease and become favorable for tropical development in the southern and western Gulf of Mexico next week. Finally, the Madden Julian Oscillation upward motion pulse will be strongly in Octant 1 next week. This particular MJO octant usually is a strong indicator that development is very possible in the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean.

So, it is of my opinion that tropical development will occur in the Bay of Campeche or perhaps the very far northwestern by the middle part of next week (centered around June 20th). I continue to monitor this potential closely and will keep you all updated on the latest.