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Dangerous Sea Conditions, High Winds, Pelting Rains Disrupt The Japanese Lives

Tue, 19 Jun 2012 15:47:22 +0100

Cyclone Warning Center News:

Super Typhoon “Guchol/Butchoy,” that was when it peaked intensity the past 2 days after gathering much energy off the Eastern coast of Visayas and Luzon. She was indeed a stunner type of system, one could not take hold such beauty in a monstrosity of proportions when it undergone a rapid intensification phase otherwise called in a meteorological tech jargon as “Explosive deepening,” on 1500Z of 16th of June 2012 exactly located at 15.6N-128.6E, which approximately 680 nm (1259 km) South of Kadena Air Base in Okinawa, Southern Japan. The system at the time had a knockout punch stronger that of our 8th-time world boxing division champion of the world from Sarangani Province in Southern Mindanao, Rep. Manny “Pacman” Pacquiao! A whopping 130 kt (241 km/hr) sustained winds and gusts to 130 kt (296 km/hr) at peak intensity. It has a central pressure of 926 hPa and stirred the East Philippine Sea into boil at 43 ft according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) in Pearl Harbour, Hawaii, USA. The only difference it made was it never made to any landmass across the Philippines, and even skirted Okinawa Island in Southern Japan on 0900Z of 18th of June 2012, downgraded to Strong Category 3 status at the time with 105 kt (194 km/hr) sustained winds, 130 kt (241 km/hr) at maximum and central pressure of 944 hPa, and gradually weakened during the course of 24-36 hrs–still a Strong Typhoon according to Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), at Category 2 status according to the JTWC.

Landfall Confirmed

Just before 0800Z (1700JST) today, Strong Typhoon “05W/GUCHOL,” locally tagged as Typhoon number four (4), maintains intensity of 70 kt (130 km/hr) with gusts up to 100 kt (185 km/hr) and central pressure of 965 hPa, accelerating Northeastwards at 35 kt (65 km/hr), and it has now finally made landfall near the Southern Pacific coast of Kii Peninsula in Southeastern Japan. According to my calculation, the center crashed between Tanami-Kiiarita and Kutumotokaichu Park though I am not that very familiar with the region in Japan for I haven’t been there in my life, using the dependable“Google map,” I was able to make definitive assumption that it was the area where the center of theTyphoon has hit hard. Only JMA as the officially designated weather agency under World Meteorological Organization (WMO) for the Western Pacific Basin has the last say and confirm whether or not my presumptions are right on target or not.

Fig. 2.0 "JMA's 0800Z (1700JST) Tropical Cyclone Information track map. Image Courtesy: JMA."

The huge Typhoon slammed the Pacific side of Japan, the first Typhoon to have made landfall in Japan for the month of June since 2004!!! It has already brought along with it torrential rains and strongest wind. A strong gust was recorded in Southern Japan earlier this afternoon was about 45 kt (83 km/hr). Ultimately the situation became worse as the storm headed for land. A curious situation was that, despite the relatively cooler Ocean heat content beyond 25.0N line, the system was able to make adjustments to the sea temperatures quite surprisingly, which normally this year, SSTs reached a cooler26-27C compared to that 24.0N and below, just over the East Philippine Sea two (2) days ago.

The Pacific coast of Japan has been ready for the arrival of Typhoon “05W/GUCHOL,” which the JMAtagged it as “Number four (4),” additionally in cautions and has advised people to evacuate if necessary in the advance of the storm. Flights were cancelled too and in Ishinomaki, people were told to leave their homes and head for higher ground in the approach of the storm. Close to 11,000 residents were told to evacuate and heed the warnings made by the local authorities there. I’d like to note that Ishinomaki was jjust one of the many areas in Northeastern Japan that was devastated by the epic Tsunamiinundation last year. The said evacuation order was made as the arrival of the Typhoon which is expected to coincide with the high tide.

Fig. 3.0 "Take a closer look at the moment of landfall by Strong Typhoon '05W/GUCHOL,' as it crashed ashore off Kiinki Region in Southeastern Japanese Kii Peninsula. Image Courtesy: JMA."

The Typhoon, according to forecasters of JMA, has struck the Southern coast of Kii Peninsula just before 0800z (1700JST) today, and is forecast to move parallel to the coast right through Honshu andTokai Region tonight until tomorrow. Considering the path of the storm, huge amounts of rainfall are expected to inundate most of the low-lying areas in the course of 12-24 hrs. It is also expected to dump rainfall totals amounting to 250 mm and upwards of 500 mm–that’s half a meter of rains in 24-hrs!!!

The danger couldn’t be possibly ignored as broadcast from NHK World in Tokyo has been warning of potentially dangerous storm surges of up to 8.0 meters in height along the Southern and Southeastern Pacific coast of mainland Japan. Further, the JMA lamented that the Typhoon should maintain intensity as it grazes the land near the coast while normally, when a storm hits terrain or land mass, it immediately loses its energy source–the heat content of the sea, and as drier air pushes along with it, a much precarious of situation comes about, and it’s a more devastating byproduct, huge “Rain event.” It could inundate the already saturated soil, especially in steeper elevations where forest cover are low and the type of soil and amount of trees that hold on the water down beneath the ground couldn’t get hold more water. The result could be life-threatening mudslides or landslides.

Fig. 4.0 "This is the Tokai Doppler Radar Imagery taken at 0945z (1845JST) indicating heaviest rainfall approaching Tokyo area and the environs. Image Courtesy: JMA."

It was also reported that some 1600 residents all across Southwestern town of Nachikatsuura inTokyo have been told to evacuate due to potentially dangerous landslides there according to NHK World broadcast today. Much more concerns for the 13 million people who use the mass transport system during rush hour tonight, and stranded passengers in Airport terminals across Japan, close to210 domestic flights were canceled due to the bad weather associated with the Typhoon, not to mention another sector greatly affected, the Sea Ports too are in a stand still.

Update 1.0: as of 1200Z (2100JST), more than 200,000 people have been affected by the Typhoon, and evacuations have been ordered in Miyagi Prefecture especially in Ishinomaki, where ground subsidence was resulted by last year’s 11th of March Great Tohoku Earthquake and ensuingTsunamis. Kesenumma too in Miyagi Prefecture included. Coastal areas are now being buffeted by high seas and inundating low-lying areas. Up to 9.0 meters of “Storm surges,” can be expected along the Pacific coast of Japan.

NHK Wx cast presenter Mai Shoji awhile ago reported of “Scary,” winds howling just outside theirNHK Tokyo Headquarters in Shibuya. Dangerous storm conditions already upon most parts ofCentral Japan tonight, the Typhoon is expected to hit at the very heart of Honshu tonight, and forecasters in JMA pegged the system to cross Northern Honshu while dumping flooding rains throughout the night until tomorrow while on land and grazing the terrain, it should be weakening as it heads right into the Eastern Japan Region. Take note that the Earthquake and Tsunami-devastated regions will be greatly affected and people have to seek higher ground from the raging sea swells and possible landslides along steeper elevations.

More than 420 domestic flights have been canceled already and close to 100 international flightswere grounded as the result of the storm. Regular flights should resume as the storm clears within the next 36 hrs, NHK World broadcast says.

Update 2.0: as of 1300Z (2200JST): Strong Typhoon “05W/GUCHOL,” now downgraded to Severe Tropical Storm threshold by the JMA due to land interaction. Still heavy rains being reported in the affected regions.

We at CycloneWarningCenter.com are aiming to provide you a better light of information, fast, accurate and on-time with a network of dedicated people across Asia the best we could!

Two Atlantic disturbances to watch; Guchol hits Japan

Tue, 19 Jun 2012 15:27:46 +0100

An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms has developed over Western and Central Caribbean, and this disturbance will need to be watched for development as it moves northwest at 5 - 10 mph and enters the Gulf of Mexico late this week. The disturbance is poorly organized, and its modest area of heavy thunderstorms is bringing rains to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, South Florida, the Southern Bahamas, and Cuba today. Wind shear is a moderate to high 20 - 30 knots over the region, and the shear is predicted to remain in the moderate to high range for the next three days along the disturbance's path. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the Southern Gulf of Mexico and Yucatan Peninsula; strong upper-level winds out of the southwest are bringing some of this dry air into the vicinity of the disturbance, which is interfering with development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday morning. None of the computer models is showing development of the disturbance into a tropical depression, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the system grow in size and potential for development over the next few days. There are currently no hurricane hunter missions scheduled to investigate.

Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the tropical disturbance near Cuba.

North Atlantic Invest 95L headed out to sea
A well-organized low pressure system with a closed surface circulation but little heavy thunderstorm activity (Invest 95L) is over the open Atlantic between Bermuda and Canada. This storm doesn't have enough heavy thunderstorms to deserve a name, but has a 50% chance of doing so before hitting colder waters on Wednesday, according to NHC. 95L is headed northeast out to sea, and will not trouble any land areas.

Figure 2. Tropical Storm Guchol as seen from NASA's Aqua satellite on June 19, 2012, as the storm approached Japan. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Guchol hits Japan
Tropical Storm Guchol made landfall in Japan's southern Wakayama prefecture near 9 UTC Tuesday morning. The Japan Times reports that the storm has injured five people, and 83,000 people have been evacuated. Guchol is the first June tropical cyclone to hit Japan since 2004. Tokyo recorded sustained winds of 56 mph, gusting to 76 mph, at 10:47pm local time (9:47 am EDT.) A wind gust of 74 mph was recorded at Shizuhama at 8:21 pm local time. The main threat from Guchol is heavy rain. The storm is expected to dump rains in excess of 400 mm (15.7") in the Tokai region, and 250 mm (9.8") inches near Tokyo. Japan is also watching Tropical Storm Talim, which is expected to pass along the length of the country Thursday and Friday. Talim's rains could cause considerable trouble, as they will fall on soils already saturated by the passage of Tropical Storm Guchol.

Japan braced for powerful typhoon Guchol

Mon, 18 Jun 2012 12:14:48 +0100

Japan's Pacific coast was bracing itself for a powerful typhoon Monday as it headed northeast along the Okinawa Islands, packing winds of up to 144 kilometres (90 miles) per hour, officials said.

The Japan Meteorological Agency warned that the typhoon, named Guchol, could cause thunderstorms, strong winds and high waves as it was expected to push a seasonal rain front north toward the Japanese main islands.

The storm system was located about 170 kilometres (106 miles) southeast of Okinawa's main city of Naha at 6:00 pm (0900 GMT) and was forecast to reach the main southern island of Kyushu midmorning on Tuesday, the agency said.

Rainfall of up to 40 centimetres (16 inches) in 24 hours was expected along the Pacific coast, the agency said.

A man evacuates a pig after the streets of Manila in the Philippines were flooded by Typhoon Guchol on June 18. Now Japan's Pacific coast is bracing itself for the powerful typhoon Monday as it headed northeast along the Okinawa Islands, packing winds of up to 144 kilometres (90 miles) per hour, officials said.

Remarkable cyclonic activity in the Pacific Northwest, GUCHOL and 91W system

Sun, 17 Jun 2012 17:06:56 +0100

Infrared mode image with the typhoon GUCHOL left, and right 91W system. 15.06.12, 09 UTC.

15.06.12. With this news, we look to the western North Pacific Ocean , the tropical cyclone activity remarkable is taking place in this basin.

Thus, the archipelago of the Philippines is breathing more or less quiet since GUCHOL severe tropical storm (orBUTCHOY , according to the Philippine Weather Service, PAGASA) that is currently causing winds of 110 km / h and gusts of 140 km / h, is taking a course that avoids a direct hit from this tropical cyclone on the set of islands that form the archipelago .

Other agencies tracking cyclonic activity around the world classified as GUCHOL category 2 typhoon on the Saffir Simpson scale, so that the relevant information is not entirely clear. According to the latest satellite images, in which we see a strong convection over the center of the cyclone (CDO, Central Dense Overcast ) but not yet apparent eye, it is likely that the information provided by PAGASA is the closest to the reality.

Although the cyclone is not impacting directly on the Philippines, the outer rainbands associated with the storm if they are affecting some islands, so you should monitor your progress in the coming hours . The trajectory forecast indicates the center of the cyclone will come relatively close, as to the condition of these bands of rain, but far in strong winds near the center.

Ocean Heat Content , Heat Content Oceanic and intended course for GUCHOL. 15.06.12, 06 UTC. Credit: RAMMB / CIRA.

In the figure above, you can see the path followed by the cyclone on the archipelago. Also, this will move on waters with high oceanic heat content , energy that could be put and GUCHOL game to be further strengthened. However,the weather situation is not ideal for rapid intensification of the cyclone , and there is some wind shear that is inhibiting slightly.

In its evolution in the coming days, after brushing the Philippines, could reach Japan in the throes of extratropical transition .

Meanwhile, far to the east of GUCHOL, a broad area of low pressure that is causing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, and has been placed under the label up with 91W INVEST . This area has the potential to become another tropical cyclone in the next few days , which would correspond to the name of Talim .

Typhoon Guchol is forecast to strike Japan at about 13:00 GMT on 19 June

Sun, 17 Jun 2012 12:07:14 +0100

Typhoon Guchol is forecast to strike Japan at about 13:00 GMT on 19 June.Data supplied by theUS Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Centersuggest that the point of landfallwill benear32.7 N,136.1 E.Guchol is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around175 km/h (109 mph).Wind gusts in the area maybeconsiderably higher.

According to the Saffir-Simpson damage scale the potential property damage and flooding from a storm ofGuchol'sstrength (category 2)at landfall includes:

Storm surge generally 1.8-2.4 metres (6-8 feet) above normal.
Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings.
Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some trees blown down.
Considerable damage to mobile homes, poorly constructed signs, and piers.
Coastal and low-lying escape routes flood 2-4 hours before arrival of the storm center.
Small craft in unprotected anchorages break moorings.

There is also the potential for flooding further inland due to heavy rain.

The information above is provided for guidance only and should not be used to make life or death decisions or decisions relating to property. Anyone in the region who is concerned for their personal safety or property should contact their official national weather agency or warning centre for advice.

This alert is provided by TropicalStorm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance,Crawford & Company and University College London (UCL). TSR acknowledges thesupport of the UK Met Office.

Super Typhoon 05W (Guchol), # 20: TCCOR 2 issued for Okinawa

Sun, 17 Jun 2012 12:02:15 +0100

By DAVE ORNAUER

6:35 p.m. Sunday, June 17, Japan time: Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2 issued for Okinawa at 6:35 p.m. local. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater now possible within 24 hours.

6:20 p.m. Sunday, June 17, Japan time: Though a very powerful storm, Super Typhoon Guchol hasn’t developed into the uber-monster as earlier forecasts indicated, possibly a consequence of it moving so rapidly north-northwest. Sea surface temperatures are warm enough, but Guchol isn’t staying in one place long enough to sop up all the humidity and moisture that such nurturing waters have to offer.

As it is, Guchol is still forecast to roar past Okinawa packing Category 3- to 4-equivalent sustained winds (115 mph) and gusts (155 mph) at its center. But with the closest point of approach forecast for 76 miles southeast at around 10 p.m. Monday, that means Guchol will rake Okinawa with its west quadrants, less dangerous and a tad smaller than the east quadrants, as seen in the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest graphic.

Okinawa remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3; expect an upgrade at any time. Here’s the latest forecast wind timeline from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:

-- Onset of 35-mph winds: 5 a.m. Monday.
-- Onset of 40-mph winds: 10 a.m. Monday.
-- Onset of 58-mph winds: 4 p.m. Monday.
-- Maximum 86-mph winds, 121-mph gusts: 9 p.m.-midnight Monday.
-- Winds diminishing below 58 mph: 3 a.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40 mph: 9 a.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds diminishing below 35 mph: 3 p.m. Tuesday.

Yokosuka Naval Base remains in TCCOR 4; other Kanto Plain bases remain all clear for the moment. Yokosuka’s weather unit calls for southeasterly winds of 20 to 25 mph with 35-mph gusts by late Tuesday afternoon, increasing to 30 to 40 mph with 50-mph gusts overnight into Wednesday.

Sasebo Naval Base (267 miles southeast at 1 p.m. Tuesday) and Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni (238 miles southeast at 6 p.m. Tuesday) continue to appear to be well out of harm’s way. Sasebo’s weather unit calls for north-northeasterly winds between 25 and 35 mph with 45-mph gusts Tuesday morning, decreasing rapidly by evening.

1 p.m. Sunday, June 17, Japan time: Another wind timeline update from Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight. Okinawa remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3 (expect that to change this afternoon), and Guchol remains forecast to roar 76 miles east-southeast of Kadena Air Base around 9 p.m. Monday:

-- Onset of 35-mph winds: 3 a.m. Monday.
-- Onset of 40-mph winds: 9 a.m. Monday.
-- Onset of 58-mph winds: 3 p.m. Monday.
-- Maximum 86-mph sustained winds, 121-mph gusts: Between 8 and 11 p.m. Monday.
-- Winds diminishing below 58 mph: 3 a.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40 mph: 9 a.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds diminishing below 35 mph: 3 p.m. Tuesday.

PST will alert you to any TCCOR changes.

12:30 p.m. Sunday, June 17, Japan time: Looks like Super Typhoon Guchol’s forecast track keeps edging ever closer to Okinawa, 76 miles east-southeast at 9 p.m. Monday. Also, it appears as if it will retain typhoon strength as it rumbles past the Kanto Plain on Wednesday, so the Tokyo area should also brace for wet, gusty weather.

Yokosuka Naval Base entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4 at 6 a.m. Sunday, and according to its weather page, that should change by 7 a.m. Monday, perhaps sooner if Guchol moves faster than forecast.

Okinawa remained in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3 early afternoon Sunday. At closest point of approach to Okinawa, Guchol will be packing Category 5-equivalent 150-mph sustained winds and 185-mph gusts at its center. Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight’s wind forecast timeline reads:

-- Onset of 35-mph winds: 6 a.m. Monday.
-- Onset of 40-mph winds: 9 a.m. Monday.
-- Onset of 58-mph winds: 3 p.m. Monday.
-- Maximum 75-mph sustained winds, 104-mph gusts: 8 p.m. Monday-2 a.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds diminishing below 58 mph: 6 a.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40 mph: 9 a.m. Tuesday.
-- Winds diminishing below 35 mph: 3 p.m. Tuesday.

This could vary as Guchol approaches and the track varies in one direction or another.

As for the Kanto Plain, Guchol is forecast to still be packing 92-mph sustained and 115-mph gusts at its center as it roars 28 miles south-southeast of Yokosuka, 48 miles south-southeast of Naval Air Facility Atsugi and Camp Zama and 60 miles south of Yokota at 9 a.m. Wednesday and 70 miles southeast of Camp Fuji at 8 a.m. Keep tuned to your base Facebook pages, official base pages and commander’s access TV channels for updates.

Sasebo Naval Base (246 miles southeast at noon Tuesday) and Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni (220 miles southeast at 5 p.m. Tuesday) still appear to be out of harm’s way; no accelerated TCCORs declared there.

Huge Earthquake Shook West Philippine Sea, Luzon; Intense Tropical Cyclone Stirs East Philippine Sea

Sun, 17 Jun 2012 11:52:52 +0100

Iloilo City, Philippines, 17 June 2012, (0000Z)–As the Philippines continue to monitor the progress of a huge and intense “Super Typhoon,” off the Eastern seaboards of Luzon, a massive temblor has hit the other side of Luzon, where most of the people across much of the country awakes to a beautiful Sunday morning, perhaps shaken this early, and considering today is “Father’s Day” across the globe. With much concern on the ongoing disruptions nationwide as the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), has been quite successful in consistently reminding the people of the possible ill-effects of the barreling Typhoon dubbed internationally as “Guchol,” locally named as “Butchoy.” Combine the best efforts of the Regional Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (RDRRMCs) spread across the country has bear fruit, with a wider latitude of participation by local authorities in their respective jurisdictions, down to the grassroots level. At this point, I would like to hail initially the resounding state of preparedness has been exceptional this time as more Typhoons come our way, and the national government agencies tasked to ensure public safety and awareness of impending perils of bad weather has been a powerful tool in reducing the potential for loss of life. The only side-effect this has caused was a long, arduous wait of when the Typhoon should leave the country’s area of responsibility.

Fig. 1.0 "A monstrosity in the works as Super Typhoon 'Guchol/Butchoy,' kicks off high seas, extreme winds across East Philippine Sea. Imagery Courtesy: NOAA."

Fig. 2.0 "JMA Tropical Cyclone Information issued at 0055Z (0855AM-PHL). Image Courtesy: JMA."

Luzon Awakened By Shaking

Recounting the dangers of dawn temblors, millions of people across the Western sections of Luzon has felt the violent and sustained shaking at around 2218.48z (0618.48AM-PHL), Sunday, 17 June 2012, for about 48-52 seconds according to a radio interviewee broadcast live on local radio, DzRH Manila 666kHz, wherein listeners tuning in on the reports have been relaying what they have felt early on. TheUnited States Geological Survey (USGS), pegged the Earthquake to be centered at 15.574N-119.609E, 58 mi (94 km) Southwest of Dagupan City, Pangasinan in Western Luzon, 71 mi (115 km) or West-northwest of Angeles City, Philippines, with a depth of 21.9 mi (35.3 km) beneath the surface, so it was clear that it was widely felt across much of Luzon,.

Fig. 3.0 "Shake Map courtesy USGS indicate how strong the jolt was this morning. Image Courtesy: USGS."

Fig. 4.0 "Massive 6.1 Mb temblor as depicted suggests the exposure to violent shaking per populated location across much of Luzon and Southern Tagalog Regions. Image Courtesy: USGS."

According to Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS), pegged the massive temblor at Intensity VI which struck 15.61N-119.46E, 32 mi (52 km) Southwest of Candelaria, Zambales, it was measured to be 7.4 mi (12 km) beneath the surface considered as very shallow, widely felt.

In their bulletin issued at 2235Z (0635AM-PHL), Intensity IV was felt across Bolinao, Pangasinan and Makati City; Intensity III was felt in Quezon City and San Fernando, La Union; Intensity II was also being felt at Bacoor, Cavite and Plaridel, Bulacan; while Intensity I was felt as far as Tagaytay City in the South.

Fig. 5.0 "A PHIVOLCS map indicate where the Intensity VI earthquake was located off shore Luzon Sea. Image Courtesy: PHIVOLCS."

No Damage Reported, Tsunami

The local government across Pangasinan, specifically nearest the epicenter, in Iba, Zambales, assessment teams have been deputized to do an inspection to areas where possible damage to infrastructure could have been incurred. So far, no damage was being reported there. In Dagupan City, Pangasinan, most of the people who were awakened by the suddenness of the violence, thought of an approaching freight train, and some locals jumped off their beds and ran for higher ground in the fear of an ensuing Tsunami along the immediate coast.

Since the seismic event occurred in shallow waters, and was tectonic in origin, considering its amplitude of movement, it was no close to generate even a localized Tsunami, however residents along adjacent coastlines should be made aware of strong undersea currents that may have been resulted by the tremors and the unsettling ground underneath the sea to be extra vigilant and do not venture too far from the coast as sea level may fluctuate from its normal levels.

PHIVOLCS Early Tsunami Warning System

Having said the fear of the unknown, the government has been forging a workable Tsunami Warning Systems deployed across Luzon Sea, and the rest of the archipelago of 7107 Islands and Isletscovered by vast seas–a massive undertaking.

A Tsunami Warning System has been put into place, a collaborative effort from Department of Science and Technology (DOST)-Advanced Science and Technology Institute (ASTI), andPHIVOLCS, which aims to help the Local Government Units (LGUs) nearest the coastlines most prone to Tsunamis with strategically designated sea level rise sensors that are designed to send off adequate warning of an approaching Tsunami.

Fig. 6.0 "Tsunami Warning System developed by ASTI for DOST, installed along Lubang Island port in Mindoro Island. Image Courtesy: DOST-ASTI."

These systems are using the readily available, wide range GSM-GPRS data communication made and developed by ASTI, which are interconnected with PHIVOLCS Data Receiving Center (PDRC) as data bank of Tsunami sensors where it will be received and consolidated for a quick and effective policy formulation in combating the threat to coastlines. There’s also the rapid communication tools and mass alerting systems will include the GSM-triggered sirens earlier developed by DOST-ASTI. These sirens are currently being tested as part of the Manila Bay Tsunami Detection System.

The wet and dry sensors of PHIVOLCS will be complemented by the Ultrasonic Tsunami Sensorsalso developed by ASTI, which will be installed in all the proposed tsunami detection sites. These sensors will record the complete history of the tsunami amplitude and the tsunami waveforms will be transmitted to the PDRC using GSM-GPRS modems. In case the GSM-GPRS communication is disabled, the system will automatically switch on the satellite module to provide the redundant communication.

Fig. 7.0 "How the Tsunami Warning System works. Image Courtesy: DOST-ASTI."

On top of this, the system can also be used to warn of other natural calamities such as lahar flow, typhoon, flash flood, and land slide, among others through minor changes in the program.

Gargantuan Challenge Ahead

A throbbing clamour yet again for Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has yet again been ultra-conservative in their issuance of bulletins and storm warnings. This has been a long practice in the agency and a multitude of Filipinos across the archipelago aren’t much permissive in letting off their grip, where in most of cases in the past, a lot of people had been subjected to unfortunate surprises, which eventually led to the demise of thousands of lives all in the mercy of the mighty tempest that came a long way out to sea.

We at CycloneWarningCenter.com are aiming to provide you a better light of information, fast, accurate and on-time with a network of dedicated people across Asia the best we could!

Staff News Reporter

Super Hurricanes and Typhoons

Sat, 16 Jun 2012 18:43:22 +0100

Why some tropical storms erupt into monster hurricanes capable of wrecking coastlines. Can they be predicted?

September 12th, 2008. A hurricane named Ike is headed toward the beaches of Galveston Island in Texas.

The eye of the storm, where the most intense winds are, is still hundreds of miles away...

Yet the rising water has already spread over much of the island.

Eight days back, researchers had flown into Ike and measured its winds... at 145 miles per hour. That made it a category 4 out of 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

Moving into the western Atlantic, Ike fed on a deep layer of warm ocean water, sweeping it up and growing to deadly intensity.

Over a million people were evacuated from coastlines in Cuba as the storm approached.

Ike weakened as it passed over the island.

But as it entered the Gulf of Mexico by late September 10th, now on a beeline for Texas, it had begun to re-intensify.

Residents of Galveston were ordered to evacuate.

Most of the 58,000 residents did.

Thousands remained to brave the storm....

Despite the memory of another storm... over a century ago... that showed how vulnerable this low-lying island can be.

September 6th, 1900... powerful waves began lashing the coastlines of Louisiana and Mississippi.

With swells rising in Galveston, on the 7th, a hurricane warning was put into effect.

That afternoon, a ship sailing from New Orleans encountered the storm. The captain estimated winds at 100 miles per hour.

But at this point, little was known about the storm... where it would hit... and how bad it would be.

By 5:00 PM, hurricane force winds began to pound the beaches of Galveston.

By the time the hurricane came ashore that evening, its winds had risen to 135 miles per hour... a category four by today's standards.

Around 8,000 lives were lost... in what remains to this day the deadliest natural disaster in American history.

The city of Galveston was reduced to rubble by wind driven waves and tides, called storm surge, over 15 feet high.

The island had endured numerous storms since it was founded in 1838. What made this one so powerful?

Hurricanes, also called cyclones or typhoons, are tropical storms that feed on solar heat captured by the oceans.

When conditions are right, a hurricane can release this energy in a fury...

Of wind and rain....

A rare few, like the one that hit Galveston, go beyond the norm, to marshal the extreme power of the seas... and leave in their wake a legacy of devastation, death, and despair.

One of the deadliest ever hit what's now Bangladesh in 1970. Moving ashore in a densely populated river delta, it claimed as many as 500,000 lives.

In 1969, weather satellites launched earlier in the decade showed hurricane Camille bearing down on the Mississippi coast.

The storm intensified suddenly... with category five winds of around 200 miles per hour, and a storm surge that reached 24 feet high.

Camille wrecked the coastline and drowned 143.

Inevitably, the storm carried huge volumes of moisture as it traveled inland. The result, when Camille hit the mountains in Virginia, was devastating floods that killed another 113.

Then there was Andrew in 1992, in an otherwise slow hurricane season.

Just two days after reaching hurricane status, Andrew took a turn into the warm waters of the Gulf Stream...

then accelerated into the Florida coastline with winds measured at 155 miles per hour.

It caused at least 26.5 billion dollars in damage. Could it get any worse?

Unfortunately, it did!

Eyes on the Tropics: Hurricane Carlotta bears down on Mexico/ Gulf and Caribbean tropical ...

Sat, 16 Jun 2012 02:11:44 +0100

There is a great deal going on in the tropics today as the MJO and more favorable environment has allowed the development of a rapidly intensifying hurricane in the Eastern Pacific and the possible development of areas in the western Gulf and Caribbean.

Of course I want to go over the latest on Hurricane Carlotta as it rapidly came together going from a tropical storm to a Hurricane in little more than a days time. The center as of late Friday has now come near the Mexican shoreline by Puerto Angel and Acapulco and peak intensity of 105 mph or a strong Cat 2 storm. As for forecast track is very straight forward. Storm will move on or near the mexican coast and move toward the WNW is expected at a slower pace which will put a lot of areas along the Mexican coast under heavy winds and rain from the hurricane. A piece of energy according to some models will help initiate a possible tropical entity in the BOC or western gulf of Mexico new week though with all the back n forth of the models highly uncertain of this at this time. Very impressive storm great outflow and continued intensification up to the coastline. Great outflow in all Quadrants and the Air force hurricane hunters measured and confirmed the peak winds. Will be a major flood maker and near the center damaging winds will come onshore the coast.

As for the Atlantic there remains a great amount of uncertainty, as I mentioned before I believed that the 15^th was the key beginnings of something and now I feel if anything be more into next week. Perhaps around the 20^th. The NHC is monitoring a small thunderstorm complex off the Alabama coast line and gives the area a near 0% of formation which I am in agreement with. If area does persist though some models do some minor intensification so cant completely rule at the area. There is a good bit of shear around though currently. So at least something was mentioned as I thought there was some potential of cyclone development. As I mentioned before a piece of energy from hurricane Carlotta may spark some activity in the BOC as mentioned by the NHC,

ANOTHER AREA OF WEATHER TO WATCH FOR IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. THE OUTER CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO HURRICANE
CARLOTTA IS ALREADY AFFECTING THIS REGION WITH SIMILAR
CONVECTION S OF 21N. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER
DETERIORATE AND SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS

So this definitely needs to be watched in areas of Texas perhaps and parts of Mexico. If anything does get going my feeling is that it wont be that significant, however may be a major rain maker.

As of Friday evening a low has been initiated in the Caribbean sea at 1009 MB. Off the central American coastline and is stationary. Going to be a tricky and sensitive situation. Lower pressures are being foretasted in both the BOC and Caribbean. Latest models have shifted north as GFS shows less land interaction and perhaps impacts to northern gulf coast and initiated the low in the NW Caribbean as well indicating the lower area of pressure. The HPC center forecasting a 1004 mb low in the BOC on Friday 22^nd . So after spending another day combing the models really hard to say what area my develop first or if both areas may form separate systems even. These areas will be closely monitored during the upcoming week. Will be posting more frequently if things begin to heat up further.

As always everyone, Keep an Eye on the Tropics and follow the official info from the NHC and the affiliated offices as well as the NWS offices. :)

Michael Ferraro

Western Gulf Of Mexico Tropical Development Quite Possible By The Middle To Later Part Of Next Week

Thu, 14 Jun 2012 12:40:51 +0100

As I have been mentioning for at least a couple of weeks now, the very real possibility is there for the development of a tropical cyclone in either the Bay of Campeche or the western Gulf of Mexico as early as Wednesday of next week. This morning is no exception as the model guidance, even though they vary exactly where this system will form, all agree that something may be brewing in the Bay of Campeche/western Gulf by the middle part of next week.

The latest GFS model guidance forecasts that a tropical system will develop by Wednesday of next week in the Bay of Campeche and then forecasts it to stall in the western Gulf of Mexico before it seemingly “blows up” into multiple low pressure centers. The latest NOGAPS model guidance also forecasts the development of a tropical cyclone in the Bay of Campeche or western Gulf of Mexico by the middle and later part of next week.

Now, my favorite model (yes, I have a favorite model) the European model forecasts that rapidly intensifying Tropical Storm Carlotta in the eastern Pacific will track into southwestern Mexico by later tomorrow into Saturday morning and that the energy from this eastern Pacific storm may combine with a westward moving tropical wave that will track across the Caribbean this weekend and also combine with a monsoonal low pressure system tracking northwestward from the southwestern Caribbean and cause the development of a tropical system in the Bay of Campeche by Thursday into Friday of next week. The European model then forecasts this tropical system to stall in the Bay of Campeche through at least next Saturday.

The overall pattern, as I have mentioned many times before, strongly supports the development of a low pressure system in the Bay of Campeche by late next week. Additionally, wind shear values are forecast to decrease and become favorable for tropical development in the southern and western Gulf of Mexico next week. Finally, the Madden Julian Oscillation upward motion pulse will be strongly in Octant 1 next week. This particular MJO octant usually is a strong indicator that development is very possible in the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean.

So, it is of my opinion that tropical development will occur in the Bay of Campeche or perhaps the very far northwestern by the middle part of next week (centered around June 20th). I continue to monitor this potential closely and will keep you all updated on the latest.