Gulf Of Mexico
Dale Link has been issuing his personal predictions of typhoon landfalls for the coastline of Japan, North and South Korea, China (including Taiwan and Hainan), and Vietnam for the past four years. (Forecast links for 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 are at the bottom of this page - Click Here) A summary of his prediction accuracy is set forth below:  For the U.S. Atlantic coastline from Lubec, MA to Key West, FL (1,800 mile range) over a 22 year period between 1985 and 2011, 13 hurricanes made landfall with hurricane intensity (0.59 hurricanes/yr.). In 14 of those 22 years, Link forecasted there would be zero hurricane landfalls. Ten of those years actually had zero hurricane landfalls (77% correct forecasting) and four had hurricane landfalls (23% incorrect). In the remaining eight years, Link forecasted 11 hurricane landfall zones (with a 300 mile range). Six of those zones had hurricane landfalls (55% correct forecasting) and four had tropical storm/depression landfalls (36%) and one had zero landfalls (9%). Also during this 22 year period, seven hurricanes landed inside Link's landfall zones (54%) and six landed outside his predicted zones (46%). For the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coastline from Key West, FL to Brownsville, TX (1,500 mile range) over a 14 year period between 1998 and 2011, 15 hurricanes made landfall with hurricane intensity (1.07 hurricanes/yr.). In three of those 14 years, Link forecasted there would be zero hurricane landfalls. All three of those years had zero hurricane landfalls (100% correct forecasting). In the remaining 11 years, Link forecasted 17 hurricane landfall zones (with a 320-380 mile range). Nine of those zones had hurricane landfalls (53% correct forecasting) and eight zones had tropical storm/depression landfalls (47%). Also during this 14 year period, 12 hurricanes landed inside Link's predicted landfall zones (80%) and three landed outside his predicted zones (20%). Link acknowledges the occasional "total miss" for hurricane landfalls in areas where he has not forecasted a landfall. This has occurred on average once every 4.7 years in the Gulf and once every 5.5 years in the Atlantic. Nevertheless, the accuracy of his predictions speaks for itself. |
HURRICANE SOURCES HURRICANE ANALYSIS |
