Tropical Central / Cyclone Warning Center

Tropical cyclone (tc) 20s (kuena), located approximately 370 nm south-southeast of the seychelles, has tracked west-southwestward at 07 knots over the past six hours. Animated multispectral and infrared satellite imagery indicate that tc 20s has weakened slightly over the past few hours after peaking in intensity near 06/09z. A 060604z metop-a image depicted a microwave eye feature and satellite imagery had depicted a weak, ragged eye. Recently, deep convection has weakened over the eastern semi-circle; however, a 061022z AMSU image continues to depict tightly-curved banding wrapping into a well-defined low-level circulation center (LLCC). There is good confidence in the current position. There is quite a bit of uncertainty in the current intensity based on Dvorak estimates ranging from 45 to 65 knots and a 060740z oscat partial image showing only 40-45 knot winds over the eastern semi-Circle. The current intensity is assessed at 50 knots based on the 45-55 knot Dvorak estimates and the scatterometer data but could be slightly higher. Upper-level analysis indicates a generally favorable environment with good poleward outflow over the western semi-Circle. Tc 20s is current tracking along the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge (str) and is forecast to continue tracking westward through tau 48. The system is expected to gradually weaken after tau 12 as the poleward outflow channel weakens but should weaken significantly after tau 72 due to increasing easterly vertical wind shear. After tau 48, tc 20s should begin dissipating and tracking northwestward. Available model guidance is in tight agreement with the exception of WBAR and the UKMET trackers, which present unlikely track scenarios. There is high confidence in the forecast track through tau 48. Maximum significant wave height at 061200z is 15 feet. Next warnings at 070300z and 071500z.

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 BREAKING NEWS: Tropical Cyclone Kuena

 

 Hurricane Season 2012: Tropical Storm Kuena (Southern Indian Ocean)

06.06.12
 
This visible image of Kuena revealed an organized story with banding of thunderstorms east of the center of circulation.› View larger image
NASA’s Aqua satellite passed over the eastern half of newborn Tropical Storm Kuena on June 6, 2012 at 0909 UTC (5:09 a.m. EDT). The visible image revealed an organized story with banding of thunderstorms east of the center of circulation. No eye was visible yet, however.
Credit: NRL/JTWC/NASATropical Storm Kuena Forms in Southern Indian Ocean

Tropical Storm Kuena has formed east of the northern tip of Madagascar today and NASA’s Aqua satellite captured the eastern half of the storm.

NASA’s Aqua satellite passed over the eastern half of newborn Tropical Storm Kuena on June 6, 2012 at 0909 UTC (5:09 a.m. EDT). The visible image, taken by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer or MODIS instrument onboard Aqua, revealed an organized story with banding of thunderstorms east of the center of circulation. No eye was visible yet, however. 

Kuena has maximum sustained winds near 35 knots (40 mph/64.8 kph) and was moving to the west at 9 knots (10.3 mph/16/6 kph). It was about 600 nautical miles east-northeast of Madagascar near 9.3 South and 59.3 East. The current forecast track takes Kuena near Agalega and Seychelles. 

Agalega is made up of two small islands and is located about 697 miles (1122 km) north of Mauritius. Seychelles includes an archipelago of 115 islands, located northeast of Madagascar.

Kuena is expected to move west and intensify slightly before weakening later this week.

Text Credit: Rob Gutro
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.
 

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