Tropical Central / Cyclone Warning Center

Landfall Confirmed

Just before 0800Z (1700JST) today, Strong Typhoon “05W/GUCHOL,” locally tagged as Typhoon number four (4), maintains intensity of 70 kt (130 km/hr) with gusts up to 100 kt (185 km/hr) and central pressure of 965 hPa, accelerating Northeastwards at 35 kt (65 km/hr), and it has now finally made landfall near the Southern  Pacific coast of Kii Peninsula in Southeastern Japan. According to my calculation, the center crashed between Tanami-Kiiarita and Kutumotokaichu Park though I am not that very familiar with the region in Japan for I haven’t been there in my life, using the dependable“Google map,” I was able to make definitive assumption that it was the area where the center of theTyphoon has hit hard. Only JMA as the officially designated weather agency under World Meteorological Organization (WMO) for the Western Pacific Basin has the last say and confirm whether or not my presumptions are right on target or not.

Fig. 2.0 "JMA's 0800Z (1700JST) Tropical Cyclone Information track map. Image Courtesy: JMA."

The huge Typhoon slammed the Pacific side of Japan, the first Typhoon to have made landfall in Japan for the month of June since 2004!!! It has already brought along with it torrential rains and strongest wind. A strong gust was recorded in Southern Japan earlier this afternoon was about 45 kt (83 km/hr). Ultimately the situation became worse as the storm headed for land. A curious situation was that, despite the relatively cooler Ocean heat content beyond 25.0N line, the system was able to make adjustments to the sea temperatures quite surprisingly, which normally this year, SSTs reached a cooler26-27C compared to that 24.0N and below, just over the East Philippine Sea two (2) days ago.

The Pacific coast of Japan has been ready for the arrival of Typhoon “05W/GUCHOL,” which the JMAtagged it as “Number four (4),” additionally in cautions and has advised people to evacuate if necessary in the advance of the storm. Flights were cancelled too and in Ishinomaki, people were told to leave their homes and head for higher ground in the approach of the storm. Close to 11,000 residents were told to evacuate and heed the warnings made by the local authorities there. I’d like to note that Ishinomaki was jjust one of the many areas in Northeastern Japan that was devastated by the epic Tsunamiinundation last year. The said evacuation order was made as the arrival of the Typhoon which is expected to coincide with the high tide.

Fig. 3.0 "Take a closer look at the moment of landfall by Strong Typhoon '05W/GUCHOL,' as it crashed ashore off Kiinki Region in Southeastern Japanese Kii Peninsula. Image Courtesy: JMA."

The Typhoon, according to forecasters of JMA, has struck the Southern coast of Kii Peninsula just before 0800z (1700JST) today, and is forecast to move parallel to the coast right through Honshu andTokai Region tonight until tomorrow. Considering the path of the storm, huge amounts of rainfall are expected to inundate most of the low-lying areas in the course of 12-24 hrs. It is also expected to dump rainfall totals amounting to 250 mm and upwards of 500 mm–that’s half a meter of rains in 24-hrs!!! 

The danger couldn’t be possibly ignored as broadcast from NHK World in Tokyo has been warning of potentially dangerous storm surges of up to 8.0 meters in height along the Southern and Southeastern Pacific coast of mainland Japan. Further, the JMA lamented that the Typhoon should maintain intensity as it grazes the land near the coast while normally, when a storm hits terrain or land mass, it immediately loses its energy source–the heat content of the sea, and as drier air pushes along with it, a much precarious of situation comes about, and it’s a more devastating byproduct, huge “Rain event.” It could inundate the already saturated soil, especially in steeper elevations where forest cover are low and the type of soil and amount of trees that hold on the water down beneath the ground couldn’t get hold more water. The result could be life-threatening mudslides or landslides.

Fig. 4.0 "This is the Tokai Doppler Radar Imagery taken at 0945z (1845JST) indicating heaviest rainfall approaching Tokyo area and the environs. Image Courtesy: JMA."

It was also reported that some 1600 residents all across Southwestern town of Nachikatsuura inTokyo have been told to evacuate due to potentially dangerous landslides there according to NHK World broadcast today. Much more concerns for the 13 million people who use the mass transport system during rush hour tonight, and stranded passengers in Airport terminals across Japan, close to210 domestic flights were canceled due to the bad weather associated with the Typhoon, not to mention another sector greatly affected, the Sea Ports too are in a stand still.

Update 1.0: as of 1200Z (2100JST), more than 200,000 people have been affected by the Typhoon, and evacuations have been ordered in Miyagi Prefecture especially in Ishinomaki, where ground subsidence was resulted by last year’s 11th of March Great Tohoku Earthquake and ensuingTsunamis. Kesenumma too in Miyagi Prefecture included. Coastal areas are now being buffeted by high seas and inundating low-lying areas. Up to 9.0 meters of “Storm surges,” can be expected along the Pacific coast of Japan.

NHK Wx cast presenter Mai Shoji awhile ago reported of “Scary,” winds howling just outside theirNHK Tokyo Headquarters in Shibuya. Dangerous storm conditions already upon most parts ofCentral Japan tonight, the Typhoon is expected to hit at the very heart of Honshu tonight, and forecasters in JMA pegged the system to cross Northern Honshu while dumping flooding rains throughout the night until tomorrow while on land and grazing the terrain, it should be weakening as it heads right into the Eastern Japan Region. Take note that the Earthquake and Tsunami-devastated regions will be greatly affected and people have to seek higher ground from the raging sea swells and possible landslides along steeper elevations.

More than 420 domestic flights have been canceled already and close to 100 international flightswere grounded as the result of the storm. Regular flights should resume as the storm clears within the next 36 hrs, NHK World broadcast says.

Update 2.0: as of 1300Z (2200JST): Strong Typhoon “05W/GUCHOL,” now downgraded to Severe Tropical Storm threshold by the JMA due to land interaction. Still heavy rains being reported in the affected regions.

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